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Gold ran to a record above 5,300 dollars an ounce and then fell about a quarter. The inflation story its owners cite neither called the rally nor cushioned the fall. What moved it was real rates, the dollar and the official-sector bid.
Both sides of the argument are debating demand. We read the supply side, the capital being committed, through the cycle that has decided every technology mania for two centuries.
The Federal Reserve held rates at the first meeting under a new chair, an outcome priced at 99.6 percent. The decision was never the story. We read the curve as it turns, quietly, from a cut to a hike.
Large speculators are heavily net short US duration and broad equities, while the curve has re-steepened out of inversion. A reading of where the crowd is leaning, and what the curve is pricing.
One of the oldest anomalies in finance says prices keep moving in the direction of an earnings surprise for weeks after the report. Tested on five years of S&P 500 data, the drift is real and concentrated in the strongest beats.
Break the first thirty-minute range and the day tends to keep going. We confirm the edge on the Nasdaq-100 and show it vanishes on individual stocks. A study in where an edge lives.
On the full record of more than eleven thousand disclosed buys across one hundred and fifty-plus members, copying Congress does not beat the market. The famous outperformance is a handful of standouts, not the body.
Options are priced for more volatility than the market delivers. The premium is real and present 82 percent of the time, yet harvesting it naively pays little for a punishing tail.
Buy more when on-chain valuation is cheap, less when it is rich. Over eleven years it bought more per dollar and lowered the average cost, but did not reduce the drawdown.
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